This post was written by aly 
October 7, 2008
- October 7 Projection
In the USA there are five hundred and thirty eight electoral votes that decide an election. This led to an intriguing website founded by Nate Silver: fivethirtyeight.com
Nate is a baseball statistician who decided to apply his craft to politics:
“What we do over there and what I’m doing over here are really quite similar. Both baseball and politics are data-driven industries. But a lot of the time, that data might be used badly. In baseball, that may mean looking at a statistic like batting average when things like on-base percentage and slugging percentage are far more correlated with winning ballgames. In politics, that might mean cherry-picking a certain polling result or weaving together a narrative that isn’t supported by the demographic evidence.”
Poll Tracker
As a result fivethirtyeight weights each poll in accuracy and over time to predict the most likely scenarios. It’s a number cruncher’s dream, including this chart in which 10,000 scenarios are run:
Probability distribution of 10,000 election scenarios
Closer to home it is interesting to see how fivethirtyeight evaluates projections in our beloved North Carolina: he doesn’t track voter numbers, just probability of how NC will vote. It really does look like a baseball scorecard!
NC projections
Just imagine what would happen if just HALF of the army of statisticians and fact checkers involved in one NFL game were pulled over for a political debate!
Tags: , baseball, election, electoral college, fivethirtyeight, mccain, obama, statistics 
1 Comment »
This post was written by beth October 2, 2008
fashionSPARK photo by NewRaleigh.com
WOW! NewRaleigh.com has fantastic and thorough documentation of SPARKcon’s fashionSPARK runway show September 19, 2008. If you didn’t get to the show, or couldn’t see it cause somebody’s big head was in your way, check it here!
Tags: , Creativity, david millsaps, fashion design, FashionSpark, Marie Cordella, new raleigh, newraleigh, newraleigh.com, sparkcon, sparkcon 08 1 Comment »
This post was written by beth October 1, 2008
Vertical Ethiopia
Yesterday in Raleigh, Great Outdoor Provision Company sponsored an event at the Lincoln Theatre. Majka Burhardt spoke and showed slides to introduce her book, Vertical Ethiopia, which is about a climbing expedition 4 women took in Ethiopia.
Not being a climber myself, I went mainly because I wanted to hear about Ethiopia, and see pictures of the landscapes. I was not disappointed. The photography by well known adventure photographer, Gabe Rogel, was absolutely stunning, so stunning in fact, that I now own the book. Beyond the pictures though, the overall story Majka told was entertaining and thought provoking. She was able to weave the thrill and danger of various climbs together with her introduction to Ethiopian culture.
Tags: , climbing, Ethiopia, Gabe Rogel, Great Outdoor Provision, Majka Burhardt, nature, outside, photography, Travel, Vertical Ethiopia No Comments »
This post was written by beth September 30, 2008
“Dirty Dishes” (or “The Girls” as they are titled) Tina, Kim and Kathy - and John Waters of course. I’m not sure I would ever want to eat with these iconic characters, but it could be fun smearing food all over their faces. Get ‘em from Adora Porcelain and various contemporary culture museums.
via Cool Hunting
Tags: , Adora Porcelain, Creativity, food and drink, interior design, John Waters, pop culture No Comments »
This post was written by beth September 25, 2008
Are you in NC and need to register? It’s easy!
download the application here!
Fill it out and mail it to your County Board of Elections before October 10!
Where’s your NC County Board of Elections? Find out here.
Are you an out-of-state college student in NC and wonder if you can vote in NC?
The answer is YES “if you intend to make your home in the community where you are physically attending school and have no intent to return to your former home after you graduate.”
C’mon. You know yer stayin.
What if you just moved to NC?
YES! You can register to vote…you must have been residing in your NC home for 30 days b4 the actual election.
Wanna know more about NC voting?
Go to the NC State Board of Elections site.
Not in the state of NC but wanna know how to register to vote and when your deadline is?
The Declare Yourself website has state by state info!
Tags: , election, Raleigh & Beyond, state board of elections, vooter registration, vote 3 Comments »
content rss
